Explanation Freeze

The tendency to come up with just one or two explanations for our impressions.  This may be an evolutionary adaptation to allow us to take action without over thinking.  (Jump away from the snake that turns out to be a hose.)  It is natural for us to choose the first explanation we come up with.  Further, it tires us out to come up with more than a couple of explanations.

To combat this, practice coming up with three or more explanations then assign a likelihood to each one.  How close to 100% do you get?  How close should you get?  Besides teaching you to look beyond the  Sometimes you can get very close to 100% with one explanation or think you can.  Sometimes there are many explanations.

I wonder if the person who practices this gets less tired of coming up with explanations.  I also wonder if she gets closer to 100% in her estimates?  I also might wonder if she gets bit by the snake.

See also:  The Narrative Fallacy (Taleb)

Thinking Fast and Slow:  We feel good when we come up with an explanation we   believe in.

 

 

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